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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.