A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
