‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply is unavailable," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the south. People are turning to coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, local news say up to a fifth of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have dwindled with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the government insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and authorities say cylinders are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now largely blocked by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being prioritised for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been triggered by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around half of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.